• Thu. Jun 30th, 2022

PGA DFS: DraftKings PGA Millionaire Maker Championship picks, values ​​and sleepers

ByRandall B. Phelps

May 18, 2022

The second major of the year is finally here as the best players in the world prepare to play at the Southern Hills in Tulsa, Oklahoma. This week’s PGA Championship won’t feature the defending champion as Phil Mickelson retired this weekend, but it will be Tiger Woods’ second event of the season. It still grabs the headlines, but next to it will be the story of Jordan Spieth, playing some of his best golf in recent years and chasing the career grand slam.

In DFS we get another Millionaire Maker from DraftKings as they set up a $25 buy-in with $1,000,000 of the $3,000,000 prize pool going for first place with just over 142,000 entries . It’s an extremely hefty GPP payout structure, but that will be our focus this week as we look to build queues for this contest.

As always, we’ve got you covered here at FantasyLabs and Action Network with a plethora of articles on price breakdown, top picks in DFS, and betting. Our Lineup Optimizer is one of the best in the industry, allowing you to create up to 150 lineups at once and sort through a number of models to create your lineups.

One factor to watch this week as we move closer to Thursday is the weather. Strong winds are expected in the area, and there could be a wave edge for those setting out in the morning on Thursday. It could certainly swing in one direction or another before locking and changing the slate significantly. I will play into this wave to some extent with my picks, but I don’t think we want to take out the other side, especially with elite players.

You can also stack the waves or choose how you want to stack certain waves in our optimizer by changing some of the dropdowns:

If you missed it, we’ve added two new metrics to our templates – Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on these measures here.

The Cliff Notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leveraged games in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best prized games for cash games.

And don’t forget the tools FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to create your lineups by hand.

High-priced PGA DFS pick

Jon Rahm $11,200

If all is equal on the weather side, Jon Rahm will be my go-to game to start super-widefield GPP builds like the Milly Maker, because I think he’ll become terribly underheld. Right now our friends at FanShare Sports have it under teenage ownership and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that decrease further as we get closer to lockdown. My feeling is that if people pay up to his level, they’ll go up to Justin Thomas right below or go up to Scheffler. This game is one of heavy recency bias, and most wipes out the win in Mexico for the Spaniard, especially compared to what Scottie has done this year.

Rahm can also be a great choice for this course, he has one of the best all round games on TOUR when he’s really up to speed. His game around the green is much better than what he displayed at the start of this year, and even the putter can come alive at times.

If we get Rahm’s peak, at low ownership, that might be all the leverage we need to be able to earn a big GPP.

Cameron Smith $9,700

All the hype and buzz surrounding Jordan Spieth has done wonders for the Cameron Smith property. If you recall, back at the Masters he was around the same price and one of the chalkiest players on the slate. He finished in the top 5 and was in the final group as the best placed player to defeat Scheffler until the 12th hole.

Fast forward a month, and he’s half the property for the same price because Spieth came to life during that time. It’s not that anything has really changed with the Aussie, but really a quick turn into one of the most popular players in the world.

I love the leverage we’re getting on Smith here because he clearly has the advantage to win this event and has the type of all-around play we’re looking for. Smith is likely to own around half of Spieth’s ownership and he’s also getting what looks to be the favorable wave to start the week.

Mid-priced PGA DFS pick

Will Zalatoris $8,900

Willy Z has established himself as one of the best players and ball-strikers on TOUR, especially in big events. He continues to put his name in the mix even as he awaits his decisive victory at this level. The missed cut last week appears to have turned some away, as it is forecast for single-digit ownership this week, even from the potentially more favorable Thursday morning wave.

If you look back at what Zalatoris did to the Byron Nelson, there was no problem hitting the ball, it was just that reluctant putter biting him again. Eventually, he can get hot for a full week and really run to win a tournament, and this week when ball-striking and specifically approach play is so important, he gets the nod from me. He can also benefit from the fact that this is probably a tough scoring event, where par is just fine, and if he can just make the shorts to save par, he can be in the mix all the way. long weekend.

Tiger wood $8,200

As I go through this list I tend to favor the AM/PM wave and that is exactly where Tiger Woods is. He gets the ultimate group on Thursday alongside Rory and Spieth, which you know will add some motivation for him to show the guys he’s/has passed the torch that he can still compete with them. I also think that this course and its difficult nature can allow him to use his experience and his knowledge of the course to face this weekend.

I think we can expect him to have a better week this week than he did in Augusta and at low ownership it’s worth betting in big GPPs to have a week we’re looking forward to will all remember if he finds a solid finish.

PGA DFS Picks Value

Tony Finau $7,900

I ride or die with the ship on Tony Finau this week, as I think his game has been greatly underrated. Yes, I know he lost 7.7 on approach at Wells Fargo, but it was a slop fest that, for my money, can largely be ignored. If you want to buy into that, let me tell you, he tends to bounce back hard from poor iron performance, and ironically the last time he lost more than seven strokes with his irons was the week before the PGA 2020.

He rebounded at this major with over seven shots won on approach and a top 5. He seems to have figured out his issues around the greens and I think the whole game is going in the right direction. I’m on Finau this week in every sense of the word and the property’s mid-teen projection won’t deter me there.

Alex Noren $7,000

Noren has become one of my favorite pieces of the week, and I even added a pinch on him. If you’ve been reading this column for any time this season, you know I’ve been all over this Swede throughout the year as he continues his return to form. He’s now headed for an event where he won’t need a bunch of birdies or low scores to wrestle with, which is well within his sphere. When I add that his favorite putting surface is the same bentgrass he’ll be seeing this week in Southern Hills, he becomes a staple for me this week.

PGA DFS Sleeper Pick

Mito Pereira $6,700

I love that some of my favorite guys this year are getting the right draw this week as Mito joins those above (apart from Rahm) in the AM/PM split. He’s starting to set everything up at the TOUR level and has shown himself to be a bit better suited for the tougher scoring events where he doesn’t have to make every putt he looks to struggle.

The Chilean also showed a preference for these green surfaces this week, as some of the victories he scored on the Korn Ferry last year also came on bentgrass. It is clearly my favorite game for the PGA Championship in this price range.

Ryan Fox $6,300

My last deep pick was a split between Lanto Griffin and Ryan Fox. Frankly, I went with Fox because Griffin is around the green and I’m afraid he’ll never get back on the green when he misses them, but I’ll throw this dart in a few lineups. I’m going to go with the Aussie here instead as he will be well suited to all weathers and finished second last week on the DP World Tour.

He is a player who is familiar with the big major tournament scene and the biggest PGA tournaments, so the event will not bother him at all, and clearly, with his arrival last week, he brings with him a good shape.