DETROIT – We started the week with two thunderstorms in two days, and now the third thunderstorm of the week is approaching tonight. We need a break, and luckily this storm will be the least impacting of the week.
We will stay dry all evening, then a few areas of light snow will cross between midnight and dawn. At this point, the build-up seems minimal, just a dusting at most.
Wednesday night lows are expected to be near 30 degrees (-1 degree Celsius), so watch for ice spots on untreated surfaces Thursday morning. The light westerly wind this evening will move northward overnight.
Tonight’s sunset is at 5:10 p.m. and Thursday morning’s sunrise is at 8:02 a.m.
Rest of the week
Pick your favorite shade of gray, because Thursday will be a cloudy day. But these clouds should not flee unless lingering flakes of the night spread just after dawn. Maximums within the upper 30s (3 to 4 degrees Celsius). Wind northeast 4 to 7 mph.
Clouds persist until Thursday evening, with lows in the mid-1930s (1 degree Celsius).
Mostly cloudy on Friday, with highs in the mid 1940s (7 to 8 degrees Celsius).
Cloudy skies are prevalent on New Years Eve. However, it still looks dry as temperatures remain almost stable in the 40 degrees Celsius (5 degrees Celsius) and then drop to the upper 30 degrees Celsius (3 to 4 degrees Celsius) at time we wake up on Saturday morning.
If you are going to party, don’t drive if you drink.
Have a designated sober driver or call an Uber or Lyft. There is no excuse for driving while intoxicated. Also, don’t shoot in the air at midnight.
Did you know that these bullets travel over 100 mph when they land on the ground? Years ago, a viewer emailed me the hole he found in his car’s hood on New Years morning after a bullet went through it. I have seen stories of holes in the roofs of houses due to falling New Years Eve bullets. And if one of those bullets hits a person, he (or you) will be injured.
This weekend (Possibility of tracking severe storms)
Long-range computer models continue to have significant problems in trying to resolve changing weather conditions from Saturday to Saturday night. But this is not surprising since the disturbance of the air aloft that is essentially the embryo of the system that will move us is still over the eastern Pacific Ocean.
It will not move until it crosses the west coast and passes the mainland. Our network of terrestrial weather balloons (called radiosondes) can provide us with dynamic and thermodynamic details of its structure which are critical data that are imported into our computer models. So let’s discuss what I know and what I don’t know.
First, I’m sure this system will have a lot of humidity to function, so it’s going to generate a lot of precipitation. This includes severe storms and potential flooding in the Southeastern United States and very heavy snowfall on the northern flank of the storm.
Simply put, this storm from Saturday to Saturday night will greatly disrupt travel. If you or someone you know has any weekend travel plans, you better let them know what I’m telling you here.
The big uncertainty with this system is its exact location which is critical to the thermal profile of the atmosphere (which, in turn, determines who receives rain, ice and snow).
The models have surface troughs on Saturday morning, ranging from southwestern Missouri to Colorado. How can I do detailed forecast when there is such a difference? Simply put, I can’t.
However, I can tell you that parts of the Lower Peninsula can receive more than ten inches of snow from Saturday to Sunday. The $ 64,000 question is: where will this group be created?
From what I’ve seen today, it looks like the most likely scenario is lower central Michigan, but that means we’re not out of the woods yet. So stay with me on that. I’ll keep you posted on Local 4, our weather app, and ClickOnDetroit.com over the next few days.
As a result of this storm we will have the coldest air of the season invading for Sunday and Monday highs in the 1920s (-3 to -2 degrees Celsius).
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